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Poll number Preference Poll for Third Game Courier Tournament. Sign up for the 3rd Game Courier tournament by voting in this poll.[All Comments] [Add Comment or Rating]
Jeremy Good wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 02:48 PM UTC:
'Since the last poll counted preset pages, this poll separately lists presets from the same page.'

Since the previous poll didn't list them separately, I question this approach, with the concern that votes for these games will be diffused resulting in their disqualification even though their cumulative might qualify them.


🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 04:21 PM UTC:
That shouldn't happen. This is a ranked ballot condorcet poll, and the stipulation that two very similar games won't both be included in the tournament removes most of the incentive for giving similar games widely different rankings. Without this stipulation, voters might sabotage one similar game to prevent both from being played in the tournament. But with this stipulation, there is no need for this. If you think very similar games are about as good as each other, you should give them roughly equal rankings. This will maximize the chance that your true preferences will be honored in the final ranking.

no one wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 04:27 PM UTC:
This could be considered the well-known divide and conquer technique. In
politics, it's the spoiler phenomena. For this tournament, it will
likely
result in the majority of the games so named being eliminated. I have 2
suggestions:

A) Contact Mr. Duke, Mr. Joyce, and Mr. Paulowich, and ask them which
variant should be the one to be included in the poll. While Mr.
Capablanca
cannot be asked his preference, it could reasonably be assumed that the
game he designed would be the one he'd prefer. 

B) List only 5 games:
     Capablanca's
     Falcon
     Grand Shatranj
     Great Shatranj
     Mir
then let the players decide which version they want to play. In the case
of a tie, go with a predetermined game. While I may be mistaken, I
believe
Mr. Duke has expressed a preference for Falcon 100, Mr Joyce for the
'D'
variants, and Mr. Paulowich for Mir32.

Please note that I have listed 5 games, not 4. I do not find that there
is
a great similarity between Grand and Great Shatranj. I would point out
that
 these 2 games are doubly handicapped, as they are placed in a 4 way
contest between the 2 games. There are, in the D versions, 5 pieces
different of the 10 in the games. Promotion rules are different. The
boards also are of different sizes. What, exactly, is the criteria for
deciding difference? How do these games fall on one side of the line,
while games with apparently far fewer significant differences fall on the
other side? As a ridiculous example, Dimension X uses all the standard
chess pieces, and adds only 3 different pieces and more squares; Templar
Chess adds only 1 piece and a few more squares; Alice Chess only adds
more
squares. As another ridiculous example, the drop games all may be
considered quite similar. If different pieces, different boards and
different promotion rules don't differentiate adequately among games,
what does? One might gain the impression that these games are being
singled out for their theme. Yet in the same way, FRC and CRC are the
same, as is chess 256, chess 960....

I would respectfully ask that method B above be used for the tournament.
If the games really are that similar, it should not make much difference
which version is played in any game, should it?

🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 05:07 PM UTC:

This is not a divide and conquer technique. Multiple candidates from the same party can split the vote in a plurality election, such as is common in United States politics, but this poll is a ranked ballot condorcet poll. The condorcet method is not subject to the same problems as plurality voting, and in particular, multiple candidates from the same party will not split the vote in a condorcet election. Since the condorcet method is not used in most, if any, political elections, you are probably unfamiliar with it, and I would suggest reading more about it.

The purpose behind giving separate entries to different presets on the same page is to allow the participants of the tournament to democratically decide which of the very similar games they prefer to have in the tournament. There is no reason for anyone to split their votes among very similar games unless they have strong preferences for one over the other. I will not be changing this poll to fall in line with your suggestions.


Joe Joyce wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 05:23 PM UTC:
I do have a question. On what basis was it decided that Grand Shatranj and Great Shatranj are *very similar*? Admittedly, I am the designer; however, I made it a point to make the games as different as possible, and do not at all see that they are very similar. Certainly they are at least as different as FIDE and Capablanca's Chess, if not more so. What criteria were applied to make this detemination? Joe

🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 06:03 PM UTC:
On taking a closer look at Grand and Great Shatranj, I see they are using different pieces. I had thought they were using the same pieces with setups as similar as Embassy Chess and Grand Chess.

Michael Schmahl wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 06:48 PM UTC:
In response to 'no one''s comments, the Condorcet (MAM) voting method
will not 'split the vote' between the very-similar games pointed out by
Fergus.  The method satisfies the following criterion:

     [from http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~seppley/]
     independence of clone alternatives (ICA, promoted by TN Tideman): 

     If there is a subset of alternatives such that no voter ranks any
     alternative outside the subset between any alternatives in the
     subset, then the election outcome must not change if a strict subset

     of that subset is deleted from the votes and from the set of
     nominees. 

A sample election, where B and B' are the 'clones' (they may be from
the same party, or just be very similar in some way):

40%: A > B > B'
30%: B > B' > A
30%: B' > B > A

In a plurality voting system, such as you might be used to, A would win
over B and B'.  But in any Condorcet method, B would win, because B would
win in an election against any single opponent.

Joe Joyce wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 07:19 PM UTC:
Thank you, Fergus. I appreciate the very prompt separation of Great and Grand Shatranj. I do strive to present named games that are noticeably different, with relatively minor differences handled by presets on the same page under the same name. While I would like to argue that 'no one' has the best solution with option B, I see your previous response precludes that. So I will have to be satisfied with what I have. [BTW, I dropped 'Mini-Rules' from the titles.] I am interested in your statement that the total number of games in the tourney will be 1.2 times the number of players. One of the things I liked about the last tournament was the choice of games the players got; it seems there will be a bit less choice for this tournament. Is there a particular reason for this, or is it just that you wish to try something a little different? No complaint, just curiosity on my part. Finally, thank you for running this tournament. While many of us moan, groan and complain, we still seem to sign up.

Jeremy Good wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 07:21 PM UTC:

I am both an American and quite familiar with the Condorcet technique. In fact, I have for a few years now advocated it as a more democratic method than any other voting technique that I'm familiar with, especially IRV or 'Instant Runoff Voting' which I believe to be even less democratic than the unfortunate, zero sum, winner takes all method which decides most elections in American politics. Because I have had experience as an elected officer for a third party in America (who was in fact elected by an alternate voting technique), I have had the incentive and opportunity to look into other modes of voting. In my opinion, IRV violates the 'one man, one vote' principle we in America have fought to uphold. So, it was with great pleasure that I saw the MAM Condorcet Voting method being used here on chess variants website.

So my initial criticism which began this aspect of this thread is not of the voting method for which I have the utmost respect.

However, I do persist in thinking that my concern is a good one and it has been left unaddressed. I believe that listing two versions of Great Shatranj and two versions of Grand Shatranj as well as two versions of Mir Chess will unfairly diffuse them. It would be perfectly alright with me if they had been included in the first poll and each qualified separately. But they were not, unlike Falcon Chess and Falcon Chess 100, each included and each separately qualified.

I had been wondering how this problem would be addressed. I can say that I believe that either method A or method B proposed by 'no one' are plans that would address my concerns. I am not 'no one' but I happen to know who 'no one' is. Either method seems more fair and more democratic than the one now being implemented.


Jeremy Good wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 07:35 PM UTC:
'If you think very similar games are about as good as each other, you should give them roughly equal rankings.' Fergus, I am quoting you here and I disagree with you. Though I might wish to see Grand Shatranj and Great Shatranj included, I don't want to see both versions of each included. If everyone who likes Grand Shatranj and Great Shatranj votes for all four of them, as you seem to be implying they should, we could easily end up with two versions of each, and I doubt hardly anyone would want that.

🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 08:00 PM UTC:
Jeremy, as I've been trying to explain, there is a stipulation against including more than one of any game from each designated set of very similar games. This is a deviation from following the strict results of the condorcet poll. If more than one game from one of these sets makes it into the top rankings, only the top ranked one will be included, and the rest will not. This stipulation bars the possibility of including both versions of both Grand Shatranj and Great Shatranj, which you doubt hardly anyone wants. I also doubt that hardly anyone wants this, and that is why I have this stipulation in place to keep anything like this from happening. It is because this stipulation is in place that people are free to vote their true preferences without fear of winding up with some very similar games in the tournament. Thus, there is no need to use strategic voting to keep two very similar games from both being included in the tournament. The rules of the poll already keep this from happening.

🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 08:12 PM UTC:
Joe, I came up with the formula for the number of games without looking back to the last tournament. In that tournament, we had 13 participants and 17 games. By the formula I'm using for this tournament, the same number of participants would have 16 games to choose from. If I changed the multiplier from 1.2 to 1.25, it would be 17 games for 13 participants, the same as in the last tournament. I might do that if that's what people would prefer.

Jeremy Good wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 08:31 PM UTC:

Ah, I see. To be frankly honest, I wasn't paying sufficient attention to your stipulation and for that I apologize. I feel the way I do when I make a blunder in a chess game. Hm. But I think my position, though it may appear weakened, still has value.

You do say 'Unless the number of players justifies it...' You were surprised by the number of people who voted in the initial poll; you could also be surprised by the number participating in this one. I don't think that's likely, so that doesn't remain as a substantive concern.

I do still have concerns that I don't see you addressing. Perhaps you can.

I still do have the concern that some people will not meticulously list all four as you seem to suggest they should and the votes will diffuse and that caprice could end up diffusing them. With the exception of Falcon Chess and Falcon Chess 100, which I think independently qualified and should both be added if they are both ranked high enough, I am still in favor of 'no one's' A or B. I know someone who strongly dislikes cannons and because of that, he is likely to rank one version of Grand Shatranj much lower; someone else could do the reverse and the result is diffusion. On the other hand, both people who like Grand Shatranj might end up being disappointed to know that neither were included despite the fact that each voted for a version of it. Isn't there an assumption you are making that people who like Great Shatranj will tend to like both versions approximately equally, that people who like Falcon Chess will like Falcon Chess 100 almost just as much? I am someone who prefers less familiar games so I will rank Falcon Chess 100 higher. That's an example of how votes between Falcon Chess and Falcon Chess 100 could get diffused with neither of them qualifying (though I think it fair games since both qualified).

In actual fact, to sum up, I expect diffusion so the chances that any versions of Mir Chess, Grand Shatranj, Great Shatranj and Falcon Chess will show up are lessened and they are playing on an unequal footing. In my last comment, I suggested that we ran the real danger of both versions of both showing up. In fact, the opposite concern seems to be more germane, no?

What I am saying in both comments though is that people are unlikely to rank all versions of each similarly, though if they look at this thread, it may motivate them to do so, but how many will pay attention to this detail?


no one wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 09:08 PM UTC:
I am glad to see one of my concerns resolved in favor of the games. Now for my other one. You are right that I am unfamiliar with the Condorcet method, but I do know that various applications of it can give different results or winners for the same vote. So here's my question: if I rate M36 above A and M32 below A, and the only other voter rates M32 above A and M36 below A, who wins, and why? This is exactly what Mr. Good is asking, I believe. If A wins, I have a bit of a problem with the method, but if A loses, which M is in, and why?

🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 09:49 PM UTC:
You're proposing this set of votes:

M36 > A > M32
M32 > A > M36

According to Stephen Eppley's MAM Calc script, which runs through the PHP
on my website at http://www.duniho.com/remote-mamcalc.php, A would win. The
condorcet method favors the least objectionable candidate to all voters. If
only two people were to play one game, and they chose which game from three
games, with votes like these, then A is the choice that is going to
minimize discontent. If one of the voters really preferred either version
of Mir Chess to A, voting to reflect his true preferences would allow one
of the versions of Mir Chess to win over A. The MAM method will reflect
voter preferences so long as people vote their true preferences. It can't
and shouldn't be expected to secondguess what anyone's preferences would
be. I have previously examined several voting methods. I consider the
condorcet method to be the best in general, and I consider MAM to be the
best version of the condorcet method.

🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 10:04 PM UTC:
Jeremy, I'm not making the assumption that people will equally prefer similar games. In my own case, I'm interested in Capablanca Random Chess but not in Capablanca's Chess, which is a flawed game. (Speaking of Capablanca's Chess, I just remembered that it has two forms, and I could do the same for it as I have for other games with multiple versions. But to do so, I would have to delete all the votes. So I'll just go with the final version if it gets in.) My assumption is that people interested in this tournament will want to play a variety of different games rather than a bunch of very similar games. I'm also wondering whether I should include Janus Chess in the same group as Capablanca's Chess. It uses the same board and almost the same pieces.

🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 10:14 PM UTC:
Jeremy, if no version of Grand Shatranj makes it, I expect the person who strongly dislikes cannons would be less disappointed than if the version with cannons did make it. Let me illustrate your example by substituting in different candidates. Suppose Condoleeza Rice, Hilary Clinton, and Ralph Nader are running for president, the condorcet method is used, and Ralph Nader wins. Should we suppose that supporters of Clinton would have been happier if Rice won, because if they supported one woman for president they probably favored a woman president?

no one wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 10:45 PM UTC:
Okay, I went to the site and ran this tally through the calculator twice: M a m b m a M b

Both times it told me that m won, a came in second and M came in third. I confess I do not understand this, as it certainly appears that the votes for M and m were exactly equivalent. Notice the only difference between this vote and the one previously discussed is the addition of a guaranteed loser in b. I am not trying to be a nitpicker. But I still have problems with how the vote turns out, depending on the number of entries, and a random factor. By adding an apparently ignorable loser, the outcome is changed from 'a' winning to one in which apparently either 'm' or 'M' can win, depending on the random factor mentioned in the Eppley calculator.


🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 11:40 PM UTC:
My comments on your previous example weren't correct. It was actually a three-way tie, and so is this new example. Both have been resolved randomly, because there is no data available for making a non-random ranking. Since the random tie-breaking involves looking at the preferences on a randomly selected ballot, it will normally favor someone's first choice. I'm not sure why I got A as the winner in the first example. Maybe I misread the output. I input the same data again and got M36 as the winner this time.

Joe Joyce wrote on Mon, Jul 17, 2006 11:57 PM UTC:
I would like the wider range of choices available for the tourney, given
there is no overriding reason to restrict them. [As long as there is not a
problem, I'd almost always opt for more.]
Also, I was looking over the poll, and noticed that Berolina Chess is tied
to the Avalanche rules page.

Greg Strong wrote on Tue, Jul 18, 2006 12:33 AM UTC:Excellent ★★★★★
I am very happy with the selection of games we have from which to choose,
and the method for selection.  I do think that like 1.25x selection option
better.  Also, I definitely do not think that Janus Chess should be
included with the other Capablanca variants as 'very similar.' 
Personally I like Janus Chess the best, because it isn't flawed like
Capablanca, and it isn't random.  I would be happy to see CRC included
too, but I am somewhat less interested in seeing it.  I would be happy to
see both, and think both of them are quite different.  I think standard
Capablanca's Chess should not be included for reasons that have already
been well established.

Thanks, Fergus, for your vigilant attention to detail.  I am pleased at
the level of participation that it looks like we will have, I am looking
forward to a great tournament.  I just hope that no one quits and forfeits
all their games as has happened in the last two.

no one wrote on Tue, Jul 18, 2006 01:08 AM UTC:

Fergus, thank you for your quick correction of your previous statement.

Not everyone would be that forthcoming. It leaves me with a better understanding of how the system works. And in particular, I see that it is apparently true that truncating makes little or no difference. I will also agree that the Condorcet method will apparently give the least objectionable results.

I do think that the change in the way games are voted on in this second poll does allow for the possibility of gaming the vote a bit. Specifically, I think some of the variants that are called clones are sufficiently different that they should get an appreciable difference in ranking. My personal preferences tend more toward the outre, so I would like to play CRC, Falcon 100, Mir36, and the D versions of Great and Grand Shatranj, rather than the other versions. I would have been inclined to rate what I would call the lesser versions below some other games, but I want to play some version of these games, so I am now inclined to rate the lesser versions directly below the preferred versions, and other games below them, to assist in any tiebreaks.

My question to you becomes then: why should not this change in my voting pattern benefit these games? For example, I would like to play Alice. But some of the variants I would previously have rated below Alice I would now rate above Alice. Does, or better, how does the Condorcet method alleviate what I see as a skew in the results, that I have deliberately introduced to counterbalance what I see as Mr. Good's valid objection, that running these games against each other in the second poll dilutes their votes?


🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Tue, Jul 18, 2006 01:27 PM UTC:
I don't really understand the question, perhaps because I don't consider
Jeremy's objection a valid one. His concerns seem to presuppose an
incoherence in someone's preferences. On the one hand, someone has one
set of preferences that he expresses in his votes, and on the other hand,
he has a different set of preferences that leads him to be disappointed
with the results. You can't have it both ways. If someone accurately
votes his preferences, the only cause for disappointment in the results
should be that other people had different preferences.

But let's move on to your specific example. The most accurate way to rank
the games in question, i.e. those designated as very similar to other
games, in relation to the rest of the games is to rank each one as though
the other games it is very similar to were not in the poll at all. So when
you rank Mir32, for example, imagine that Mir36 is not in the poll, and
rank Mir32 accordingly.

carlos carlos wrote on Tue, Jul 18, 2006 04:06 PM UTC:
as usual, thanks for organizing this, fergus.

i also vote for as many games as possible.

🕸📝Fergus Duniho wrote on Tue, Jul 18, 2006 05:22 PM UTC:
I've fixed the link to Berolina Chess, and the multiplier for determining the number of games is now 1.25.

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