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Well, if we woud assume that the true score prcentage would be that of the
total run, i.e. 356/676 = 52.66%, the expected scores for the first 213
and last 463 games would be 112 and 244 points, repectively. So the actual
result is off by 8 points. This is kind of normal for 213 games: the standard
deviation over N games is ~0.5*sqrt(N), or 7.3 for 213 games. So the
observed deviation is indeed approximately 'standard'.

It is clear already from the 52.66 result that Rook and Falcon are very close matches, (although the difference from 50% is significant!), and that the details of the strategy (for which number of Pieces or Pawns would you prefer Falcons over Rooks, and for which the opposite) could improve the results much more than fine-tuning of a single Falcon value used during the entire game in the range R-0.5 to R+0.5.

Such subtle strategic evaluations are a bit beyond the scope of a simple program like Fairy-Max, which also doesn't use such considerations for the other pieces (e.g. it does not know about Rooks on open files, the Bishop pair or doubled Pawns). To do better, I would have to convert Joker80 to hndle the Falcon. (I already started with that, but I was a bit too busy recently to finish the job.)