Derek Nalls wrote on Thu, Jul 26, 2007 04:41 PM UTC:
The proof Nalls' 50-page program is comparatively inadequate is that he
will not likewise use it for such estimatations on command. Since his
system is only good for three sets now (FRC,CRC and the one of his own),
it apparently does not even achieve hit-or-miss or willynilly import.
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You are too gracious. In fact, I only know my model to be reliable for
two sets now- FRC & CRC. It could be way off track for one set- Hex Chess SS.
To be sure, I appreciate your efforts on behalf of Joe Joyce.
Unfortunately, despite your very good intentions, I also regard your
efforts warily as borderline irresponsible.
Contrary to naive intuition, with relative piece values, guesses can be
worse than using no values at all.
If you have no relative piece values to play by, then you will naturally
use caution in forcing exchanges that are not obviously advantageous (or
allowing your opponent to force exchanges upon you).
If you have relative piece values that you hope are instructive yet are,
in reality, too inaccurate, then you will feel justified in forcing
exchanges that are allegedly advantageous (or allowing your opponent to force exchanges upon you).
This doomed course of action will cause you to lose repeatedly. The
material nature of the loss will not be immediately clear since you will
assume this could not possibly be the problem. Instead, you will
incorrectly attribute the loss to a positional shortcoming or poor move at a critical junction and for instance, analyze every move in the opening
game in detail. Of course, all of these efforts will fail to solve the
problem and you will still continue to lose.
The moral of the story is that if you know nothing, admit it since other
courses of action can be disastrous. Be honest, realistic and
responsible to the greatest extent possible.
In the total absence of feedback, you have no means of obtaining any
vitally needed experimental knowledge regardless of how high your
intelligence may be. You are like a man target shooting blindfolded or a
man hunting gold with a metal detector wearing earplugs.
Please remember that reliable relative piece values have only been
established, to date, for FRC & CRC. These are the only two testbeds
available for ANY model. Forays into other games, if you must make them,
should at least carry a strong 'use-at-your-own-risk warning'.
It is contradictory and arrogant on your part to hold no confidence in my
model yet hold irrationally too much confidence in your model. As far as
your model goes, you are as confident as you are reckless. Good luck!