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H.G.Muller wrote on Thu, May 1, 2008 11:53 AM UTC:

I still can't see the point you are tring to make. If piece values cannot
be used to predict outcomes of games, they would be useless in the first
place. Why would you want to be an exchange or a piece ahead, if it might
as frequently mean you are losing as that you are winning? Fact is that I
OBSERVE that the piece values I have given below do statistically predict
the outcome of games with good precision.

If, according to you, that should not be the case, than apparently you are
wrong. If, according to you, that is not what 'good' piece values should
do, than that satisfactorily explains why you would consider your set of
piece values, which would cause whatever entity that uses them to play by
to lose consistently, in your eyes can still be 'good', and further
discussion could add nothing to that.

What you say about opponent modelling doesn't have anything to do with
piece values. Precisely knowing the limitations of your opponent allows
you to play a theoretically losing strategy (e.g. doing bad trades) in
order to set a trap. In general, this is a losing strategy, as in practice
one cannot be sufficiently sure about where the opponent's horizon will
be. So it will backfire more often than not.

And the datasets that are analyzed by me or Kaufman are not dominated by
players engaging in such opponent modelling. I can be certain of that for
my own data, as I wrote the engine(s) generating it myself. So I know they
only attempt theoretically optimal play that would work against any
opponent.

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Comments

Aberg variation of Capablanca's Chess. Different setup and castling rules. (10x8, Cells: 80)

💡📝Hans Aberg wrote on Sat, May 3, 2008 04:43 PM UTC:

H.G.Muller:
| But the point is that this does not alter the piece values.

Right, though that might be just a preferred way to structure theory because it suits human thinking. Essentially, define contexts, and attach values to them. First define piece values in nutralk settings. Then observe that the bishop pair gets an added value. Then try to figure out values for good and poor bishops. And so on. By contrast, computers tend to be very poor at handling such contexts, so other methods might be suitable for programs.

Derek Nalls wrote on Sat, May 3, 2008 03:26 PM UTC:

Muller:

You have my best regards toward your worthwhile effort to publish your
empirical, statistical method for obtaining the material values of pieces
in the ICGA Journal.  My assessment is that it will surely be a much
better paper than the junk [name removed] published in the same journal
regarding piece values.

[The above has been edited to remove a name and/or site reference. It is
the policy of cv.org to avoid mention of that particular name and site to
remove any threat of lawsuits. Sorry to have to do that, but we must
protect ourselves. -D. Howe]

H. G. Muller wrote on Sat, May 3, 2008 03:22 PM UTC:

Sure, this is what people do and have done for ages. It is well known that the advantage of having the move is worth 1/6 of a Pawn, (corresponding in normal Chess to a white score of 53-54%) and that, by inference, wasting a full move is equivalent to 1/3 of a Pawn.

But the point is that this does not alter the piece values. It just adds to them, like every positional advantage adds to them. In my test the advantage of having the lead move is neutralized by playing every position both with white to move and black to move.

💡📝Hans Aberg wrote on Sat, May 3, 2008 11:50 AM UTC:

H.G.Muller:
| As piece values are only useful as strategic guidelines for quiet
| positions, they cannot be sensitive to who has the move.

At the beginning of the game, white is thought to have a slight advantage, and the first task of black will be attempting to neutralize that. And it might be possible set a picee value to that positional advantage, just as when reasoning in terms of getting positional compensation for a sacrifice. Somewhat less han a pawn, perhaps. If one knows about the black/white winning statistics, one might be able to set a value on it that way. It may not be usable for a computer program as it does not change sides, but only computes the relative values of moves.

H. G. Muller wrote on Sat, May 3, 2008 10:34 AM UTC:

As piece values are only useful as strategic guidelines for quiet positions, they cannot be sensitive to who has the move. A position where it matters who has the move is by definition nont quiet, as one ply later that characteristic will have essentially changed. So at the level of piece-value strategies, Chess is a perfectly symmetric game.

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