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Derek Nalls wrote on Mon, May 26, 2008 07:36 PM EDT:
Rest assured, I intend to drop this futile topic of conversation soon and
leave you alone.

The following is my impression of how the limited randomization of 
move selection that you have described as being at work within Joker80
must be harmful to the quality of moves made (on average) at long 
time controls.  Since you have experience and knowledge as the
developer of Joker80, I will defer to you the prerogative to correct 
errors in my inferred, general understanding of its workings.
_______________________________________________________

short time control
1x

At an example time control of 10 seconds per move (average),
Joker80 cuts thru 8 plies before it runs out of time and must
produce a move.  At the moment the time expires, it has selected 12 
high-scoring moves as candidates out of a much larger number of 
legal moves available.  Generally, all of them score closely together
with a few of them even tied for the same score.  So, when Joker80 
randomly chooses one move out of this select list, it has probably not 
chosen a move (on average) that is beneath the quality of the best 
move it could have found (within those severe time constraints)
by anything except a minor amount.  In other words, the damage to 
playing strength via randomization of move selection is minimized 
under minimal time controls.
___________________________

long time control
360x

At an example time control of 60 minutes per move (average),
Joker80 cuts thru 14 plies (due to its sophisticated advance pruning
techniques) before it runs out of time and must produce a move.  
At the moment the time expires, it has selected only 4 high-scoring 
moves as candidates out of a much larger number of legal moves 
available.  Generally, all of them score far apart with a probable 
best move scored significantly higher than the probable second best 
move.  So, when Joker80 randomly chooses one move out of this 
select list, the chances are 3/4 that it has ignored its probable best
move.  Furthermore, it may not have chosen the probable second best move,
either.  It just as likely could have chosen the probable third or fourth
best move, instead.  Ultimately, it has probably chosen a move 
(on average) that is beneath the quality of the best move it may have 
successfully found by a moderate-major amount.  In other words, 
the damage to playing strength via randomization of move selection is 
maximized under maximal time controls.
_______________________________________

The moral of the story is that randomization of move selection reduces 
the growth in playing strength that normally occurs with time and plies 
completed.

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