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H. G. Muller wrote on Tue, Dec 24, 2024 08:42 AM UTC in reply to Dmitry Eskin from 07:46 AM:

I largely agree with that. Except that the averages probably have to be weighted, with a significantly larger weight for the end-game. This assumes the game will be decided in the end-game, though.

This issue of latent values is a really complex one, as in principle the weighting is affected by the probability that you will actually reach that game phase. If the difference in middle-game values is so large that the game can be decided before you reach the end-game, the end-game values would obviously carry no weight. In Chess the latent value of pieces is not so large that having one or two pieces that perform better in the middle-game compared to their end-game value would be a decisive advantage, though.

That is different in Chu Shogi, which is Chess-like (i.e. no piece drops), but where all pieces can promote, in a 4-rank-deep zone. So for most pieces it will eventually become impossible to prevent their promotion, and the end-game value approaches that of the promoted form. For some pieces this can make a huge difference with their middle-game value, where they would not be promoted: some 8-target leapers, which should be of Knight value, can promote to pieces stronger than a Queen. If you judge those by their end-game value you can get in a situation where the opponent has an army with a middle-game value that is so much larger than yours, that he can start promoting his pieces long before you can, driving up the instantaneous value difference even more, and use his ever-growing advantage to make sure you never get to promote anything.


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